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The markets reacted strongly
with a near 500-point gain for the Sensex yesterday. But how should smart
investors react to this budget? The dust settles and we take a closer look at
it, one conclusion is unavoidable: Despite all of the speculation, hype, and
hoopla in the days leading up to the budget, there's nothing really earth-shattering
about it. It's just business as usual on most counts.
Yet, the kind of attention this
exercise gets here in India, especially in stock market circles, it is only to
be expected that the markets react strongly.
But from personal experience, I
can tell you this: For many on D Street, it has become an outright excuse for
speculation. The surrounding hoopla makes it difficult for investors to see
through it. And easy to believe that they must 'do' something in response to
it.
It is at times like these that
it is most important to rise above the noise. Make no mistake, it is an
important exercise and does affect some businesses more than others. But these
differences in most cases are marginal and incremental. And seldom of the 'make
or break' variety.
All put together, the annual
budget exercise is very much a part of the 'normal' business landscape of
companies. The multitude of tweaks made in it either help or harm the cause of
a given company ever so slightly. But then again, that's true for all the continuous
developments, both global and domestic, throughout the rest of the year.
Its collective approach to stock
picking, its devotion to large safety margins in the purchase prices, and its
dynamic debt component (fixed deposits/bonds) renders most developments that
the economy throws at the business world, government budgets included, trivial.
MCM strategy as a sort of
'Chinese Wall' between the rough and tumble of the business world and our
subscribers' returns. It ensures that over the longer term, our returns remain
not just protected, but well ahead of the general market's returns.
Chart of the Day
The Union Budget for 2017-18 was
presented by finance minister, Mr Arun Jaitley yesterday.
The markets seem to
give a thumbs up to the budget, the Sensex closed up 486 points for the day.
Does the budget play a crucial role for a serious long term investor? What role
if any do the valuations play in prospective returns. We looked at the price to
earnings ratio of the Sensex on the budget day as a proxy for valuations and
noted the following 3 year compounded annual return going forward.
Budget or Not - It is the
Valuation That Counts -
We found that the market returns
are agnostic to the budget in the long run. What mattered more was the
valuations at that point in time. Cheap valuations are a big driver of future
returns.
Be it the Union Budget, GST or a
great monsoon, you always got to ask the all-important question: Everything
said and done, am I paying too much for the stock in relation to its intrinsic
value?
For even though the budget may
be path breaking and the economy may have some great years ahead of it, when
you pay too much, even a good stock can quickly turn into a bad investment.
After opening the day on a flattish note, the
Indian stock markets fell below the dotted line. At the time of writing the
BSE-Sensex was trading lower by about 42 points (down 0.2%), while the NSE
Nifty was trading lower by 15 points (down 0.2%). Sectoral indices are trading
on a mixed note with stocks in the metal sector and auto sector witnessing
maximum selling pressure.
Today's
Investing Mantra
"Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down" - Warren Buffett