Fed review, corporate results to dictate Sensex movement - BUsiness Today
Fed review, corporate results to dictate Sensex movement - BUsiness Today
The US Federal Reserve policy review on interest rates on April 29-30, 2014 will dictate the future course of market movement for the week. All eyes will be on the Fed statement and its future course of action. Earlier on March 19, 2014, the Fed went according to its plan by cutting its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion to $55 billion. Though the market doesn't expect any change in the US interest rates which is currently at 0.25 per cent, any adverse news on Wednesday would lead to the cascading effect across the globe including our market.
Back home key corporate results from index heavyweights like Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Bharti Airtel and Sesa Sterlite will be important to watch. HUL will announce its result on Monday, April 28, 2014, while Bharti Airtel and Sesa Sterlite to declare its results on Tuesday, April 29, 2014. April 2014 automobile sale numbers towards the later part of the week will also be in focus. The market will be close on Thursday, May 1, 2014 on account of Maharashtra Day.
Meanwhile last week, the BSE Sensex continued to inch close to the 23,000 mark and touched a new all-time high of 22,939.31 but ended flat on account of profit booking at higher levels. Today what can go wrong for the Sensex is an unstable government at the centre, US increase interest rates, FII flows drying up, uncontrolled twin deficit from the government, investments and reform process not picking up and downgrades by rating agencies. A couple of months back these factors seem to be haunting the Indian market, but today though all these factors being critical it doesn't seem to bother the market.
The market has already discounted the fact that a stable lead by the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will come to power. This has been clearly witnessed with the BSE Mid-cap and BSE Small-Cap Index surpassing the gains of BSE Sensex. In 2014, the BSE Mid-cap and BSE Small-cap index has gained 10 per cent and 16 per cent, respectively, against the BSE Sensex that is up by 7 per cent.
Until the outcome of the general election, the Indian market will react mainly on global cues, currency and FII flows. At the current market levels there is no room for error and investors should stay guarded on their optimism and keep sufficient room for safety. - Mahesh Nayak